Why Being Part of Ethiopia Won't Save Tigray from its Humanitarian Crisis

 

One of the horrific consequences of the genocidal war and ongoing atrocities on Tigray is the disastrous humanitarian crisis. Hundreds of thousands have lost their lives. Millions were displaced. Women, girls, boys and men faced the horrors of weaponized rape. Millions were starved deliberately. Cultural artifacts were stolen and pillaged. Ethiopians engaged in propaganda to “wipe out Tigrayans.”

The Government of Ethiopia, Eritrean forces, other international actors, Amhara militias and Ethiopia’s regional forces committed or abetted this genocide. The cease-fire agreement signed in Pretoria in November 2022 brought the gun fires to a halt, but the humanitarian situation in Tigray remains catastrophic. Despite constituting part of Ethiopia, famine, underdevelopment, displacement, and insecurity remain rampant in Tigray. The administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed aggravated this crisis instead of addressing it.

 

In fact, in view of the long history of marginalization and mistreatment, the central government has always done harm to Tigray’s recovery and safety. These are the grounds-a humanitarian, political, and economic reality-that indicate how there can be more harm than hope for Tigray due to its continued integration into the Ethiopia state.

 

Humanitarian Needs

 

The government of Ethiopia did little to reduce the humanitarian disaster in Tigray, where millions were left in the worst state since the ceasefire. International organizations, international media and humanitarians warned that millions in Tigray continued to stand on the brink of starvation. Nine months of stalled delivery in 2023 furthered the food insecurity of the region. There was already famine due to the systematic use of starvation as a weapon of war. While deliveries did resume in 2024, the scale and pace of assistance remains nowhere near adequate. Meanwhile, the Ethiopian government received billions of humanitarian aid from the international community.

 

The United Nations and other international relief agencies face challenges to address those most hungry and displaced. The great swaths of Tigray- areas forcefully and illegally occupied by Amhara and Eritrean forces -continue to be blocked from the lifesaving aid. Once key agricultural areas largely turned into a no-man's land, with Tigrayans being forced to flee their homelands in no position to return and farm their lands. The Government of Ethiopia, reluctant to restore normalcy in Tigray, made this worse. It failed to restore the territorial integrity of Tigray to status quo ante as stipulated by the Pretoria Agreement, in fact entertaining the idea of referendum when hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans are displaced.

 

Negligence of humanitarian needs in Tigray by the Ethiopian government, even politicizing call for help from the regional administration and forcing the politicization of aid by UN agencies such as the UNOCHA is a continuity in genocidal patterns. Even before this war and change of regime, Tigrayans were relegated to the periphery regarding national development policies. However, this marginalization has been made worse under Abiy Ahmed's watch as his government pursues policies that intentionally marginalize Tigray.

 

Systematic Discrimination and Blockades

 

One of the major reasons why being a part of Ethiopia could not save Tigray is the genocidal war. Arbitrary arrests, mass detentions, and violence simply because of one's ethnicity were common against Tigrayans throughout the country. This, of course, makes it plain that to the Ethiopian government, Tigrayans are not part of a state entitled to equal protection and rights. Indeed, the Ethiopian government systematically persecuted, killed, starved, raped Tigrayans. It treated Tigrayans as enemies simply based on our identity, far from citizens.

 

This has been further sealed by the blockade of Tigray for much of the genocidal war, where the Ethiopian government cut off communications, electricity, banking, and access to humanitarian aid as an integral part of a deliberate strategy of weakening and destroying Tigrayans. The reopening of such services, while promised in the Pretoria agreement, has been painfully slow and incomplete. While most of those services have begun, not all services are available in all of the region up to date. This hampered the recovery efforts and re-connection of Tigray with the rest of the world.

 

The blockade was not only a military strategy but a collective punishment, a move to debilitate economic vitality and civilian life. Media propaganda to take Tigray back a 100 years are evidence of this intent. That such a move could be contemplated by the government in Ethiopia is ample evidence that it is not designed to protect or support Tigray. It has instead shown a disturbing willingness to destroy Tigrayan lives and well being.

 

Territorial Integrity

 

After the genocidal war broke out, Amhara and Eritrean forces forcibly and illegally took over most Tigray, displacing millions of Tigrayans amid widespread human rights abuses. Those areas remain under their control, and the Ethiopian government has failed to implement the Pretoria Agreement and the subsequent Nairobi Declaration to restore territorial integrity. Rather, it has referenced referendum in the Amhara region even when hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans are displaced. 

 

This occupation provides the fuse threatening to blow any hope of lasting peace in Tigray. Reluctance by the government of Ethiopia to restore Tigray's territorial integrity is a clear proof of the unwillingness of the Ethiopian State to protect Tigrayans’ rights to land, property, and self-government. As part of Ethiopia, the more will the people of Tigray be exposed to continued insecurity and displacements, worsening our humanitarian crisis.

 

Lack of Justice

 

The Ethiopian government utterly failed to make any authentic effort toward justice. it has denied the atrocities committed by its forces and those of its allies. How could it admit? It was an actor.

Whereas the Pretoria agreement called for a transitional justice process to address those crimes, little progress is being made toward accountability and justice. Successful lobbying by the Ethiopian government resulted in an end to the U.N. probe into human rights violations in Tigray. It instead offered a national reconciliation process that many criticize as grossly lacking and biased. This lack of accountability causes further injustice.

 

There will be no durable peace in Tigray without justice and accountability. Crystal clear was the signal that was given: a lack of any transparent, fair process for justice by the Ethiopian government, there was no basis to expect this actor to value the rights and lives of Tigrayans. Without justice, the wounds of war will continue to fester, and no meaningful recovery can take place.

 

Economic Marginalization

 

The economic future of Tigray as part of Ethiopia shows the same signs. The war has reduced the already poorly developed infrastructure, economy, and agriculture of the region to rubbles. It left millions literally without work or livelihoods. During the destruction of the genocidal war, factories, schools, hospitals, and farms were purposefully burnt to ashes. The economy is not yet revived, and the Government of Ethiopia gave very little toward reconstruction funds or development assistance that could help Tigray get on its feet. Further, many civil servants have not been paid to date.

 

Tigray was already excluded from national development plans of Ethiopia, but the genocidal war widened that gap. Such neglect by the Government of Ethiopia is only further proof that being part of the Ethiopian state is not going to guarantee the prosperity and/or recovery of Tigray. Tigray has become even more remote and had to rebuild on its own with little assistance from a center which continued in large measure to direct resources elsewhere.

 

Role of Eritrean Forces and External Threats

 

Finally, there is no guarantee that the incorporation of Tigray into Ethiopia will guarantee security against the outside world, at least not from Eritrea. Eritrean forces played a major role in the genocidal war on Tigray. The Pretoria agreement failed to ensure the withdrawal of Eritrean troops from Tigray where they continue to commit atrocities against Tigrayan civilians.

 

Meanwhile, the Government of Ethiopia has shown little interest in removing the Eritrean forces. It even referred to the Algiers Agreement in support of the forcefully and illegally occupying forces. It should be noted that they have pushed further beyond the so-called Agreement and the Algiers Agreement has its inherent failures which I wrote of elsewhere. The lingering presence of Eritrean forces represents the Ethiopian states’ unwillingness to protect Tigray against aggression.

 

Being part of Ethiopia ushered in neither security nor development nor recovery. It instead plunged Tigray deep into the throes of neglect and marginalization, coupled with genocide. Meaningful change has yet to come in and I would not count on it. This is argument enough for the right to self-determination towards free Tigray without oppression by a state that has never protected or served us.