Part II: Who Controls the Pressure Points in a Multipolar World? What Does That Mean for the Horn of Africa?
Photo Credit: Institute for Security Studies In this second part, I discuss what the multipolar world would have meant to Africa, how the Trump administration makes this risky, and the role of the EU. You can find Part I of my discussion here . Africa is not outside global crises—it is downstream of them. Key vulnerabilities include fuel import dependency, fertilizer reliance, and exposure to global price shocks. It is also a strategic reality. As China expands infrastructure and trade networks, the U.S. seeks security partnerships, and Russia offers military and political support, it creates opportunities—but also risks of dependency. While China’s influence in Africa is built on the cold logic of balance sheets and concrete, Russia’s strategy through its Africa Corps (the successor to the Wagner Group) operates on a much more intimate and existential level. By offering regime security —direct protection for leaders against coups, insurgencies, and internal dissent—Moscow ...
