Part III: Who Controls the Pressure Points in a Multipolar World? What Does That Mean for the Horn of Africa?
The Logic of External Actors in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, and its Impact None of the behaviors of external powers in the Horn of Africa are accidental. They are shaped by structural incentives, domestic constraints, and deeply embedded strategic cultures. Understanding these logics is essential to explaining why the region is becoming increasingly unstable despite growing global attention. This part III will discuss these issues. To read part I click here . To read part II, click here . The United States: Retrenchment and Transactional Power The United States—particularly under Donald Trump—has shifted toward strategic retrenchment and cost-benefit calculation. Rather than maintaining a system-building role, U.S. policy increasingly prioritizes influence at an acceptable cost. In practice, this means reduced commitment to global “public goods” such as security provision, greater pressure on allies to assume responsibility, and the preference for short-term deals over ...
