Tigray in Ethiopia: The Persistence of Constraint

 The signing of the Pretoria Agreement in November 2022 was widely presented as the end of a devastating war in Tigray. To the world, it promised a transition from destruction to recovery. But for Tigray, today, peace remains more rhetorical than real.

What has emerged instead of peace is a quieter, more ambiguous phase of negative peace—one defined by what some call no-war/no-peace. The genocidal war has not stopped with the exception of ceasefire.

A Region Without Normalcy

The scale of atrocities committed during the genocidal war is well documented. The genocidal war is more deeply, and in its many aspects, documented by The Commission of Inquiry on Tigray Genocide. 

The Pretoria Agreement was designed not only to stop fighting but to restore services, in addition to many other aspects of returning to normalcy. However, there is a stark failure of implementation by the Ethiopian government. 

However, the cessation of active war has not translated into meaningful recovery. Tigray is under a functional blockade, including fuel, banking, and budget. This has caused severe socio-economic disruption, affecting public services and daily life. Analysis points that conditions resembling wartime siege, during the genocidal war, have re-emerged despite the Pretoria Peace Agreement.  

These constraints are not abstract policy failures. They determine whether hospitals function, whether markets operate, or whether families can send their children to school. Students and teachers protested in recent months to no-avail.  And, the health bureau is raising the alarm, only to intentionally deaf ears. Daily lives of people living in Tigray are impacted. In essence, the Pretoria Agreement has resulted in what can be described as “negative peace”—a condition in which war is no longer overt, yet peace is not there as well. 

In such an environment, even development becomes political. For example, the failure to go on with the railway project in Tigray is not merely an economic setback, they shape the long-term trajectory of the region. This is despite the fact that due to geographical location, Tigray would benefit the most. Tigray is a borderland and would have the upper hand in benefitting from such a project. Even Workineh Gebeyehu of IGAD, also considered to be the right hand man of Abiy Ahmed, has alluded to the benefits such projects bring to borderlands:

“In Africa, border regions are too often where poverty, fragility, and neglect converge, while in more developed parts of the world, borders are where connectivity, growth, and opportunity thrive.

This must concern us.

At the 28th Horn of Africa Initiative meeting on prioritising corridors to enhance trade and connectivity, I reiterated that borderlands must be placed at the centre of sustainable development in our region.

Corridors must not only move goods. They must also create opportunity for the communities that live along them.”

What about prior to the Genocidal War?

For decades, Tigray’s political trajectory was closely tied to the Ethiopian federal system, particularly through its role in the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front. 

The system of multinational federalism, in which the TPLF played a key role in forming, shaped both opportunities and constraints. It addressed identity and representation, issues that were issues of turmoil in Ethiopia. But, it also embedded structural realities that matter deeply in Tigray. Tigray became a minority within the federation.  This would mean less federal resource allocation and few representation nationally. 

The question of alternative paths also arises: what if Tigray had pursued independence rather than the formation of the EPRDF? Independence may have offered policy autonomy and strategic control. And, might have prevented genocide, at least by our own State.

Conclusion

Thus, we can say that reliance on federal institutions as the primary engine of recovery appears increasingly abusive.  The expectation of equitable treatment is no longer a sufficient strategy. Expectation in the face of contrary evidence is not a plan, it is a delusion. 

Reviewing historic decisions illuminates visions for long-term constraints and opportunities. In addition, if the current post-Pretoria environment and being part of Ethiopia has exposed the limits of reliance on the Ethiopian government, then recalibration is necessary. 

A sustainable path forward for Tigray depends on strengthening internal capacity: building resilient institutions, expanding economic self-sufficiency, developing a unified political direction beneficial for Tigray, engaging externally with strategic clarity, and finally, independence. This is a critical shift from dependency to agency.