Analysis: IOM Data: Displacement in Tigray (December 2020-May 2024): A Humanitarian and Socio-Economic Analysis

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Between December 2020 and May 2024, Tigray faced one of the most severe internal displacement crises in Africa. Driven primarily by genocidal war, displacement patterns fluctuated as hostilities escalated and periods of relative stability allowed for some returns. Data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) provides a detailed picture of these displacement trends.

Displacement Trends in Tigray (2020-2024)

Early Displacement (December 2020 – January 2021)

The genocidal war in Tigray began in November 2020, leading to a rapid and large-scale internal displacement crisis. By early 2021, hundreds of thousands of individuals had fled their homes, seeking refuge in neighboring areas and within Tigray itself. However, due to limited access and ongoing war, precise figures were difficult to determine.

Escalating Displacement (March – July 2021)

The war intensified, causing displacement numbers to rise sharply. IOM’s National Displacement Reports indicated that war remained the primary driver of displacement. By mid-2021, while some areas saw minimal returns, the overall situation remained unstable.

Shifts in Displacement Patterns (August 2021 – February 2022)

Reports from late 2021 and early 2022 highlighted shifting displacement dynamics. Although some displaced individuals attempted to return to their homes, widespread insecurity prevented large-scale returns. Tigray remained one of the most affected regions in Ethiopia, with significant operational constraints hampering humanitarian access.

Data Collection Challenges (March – September 2022)

Throughout 2022, security concerns and logistical challenges hindered the collection of accurate displacement data. As a result, IOM was unable to include Tigray in its national displacement totals for several months.

Critical Developments in Late 2022 – Mid 2023

In November 2022, IOM resumed data collection for Tigray, revealing that the region accounted for a substantial portion of Ethiopia’s internally displaced population. By mid-2023, there were approximately 4.38 million IDPs in Ethiopia, with Tigray hosting over 1 million conflict-induced IDPs. Some progress was made in returning IDPs, but large-scale movements remained constrained by security and infrastructure challenges.

Continued Displacement and Humanitarian Needs (August 2023 – May 2024)

Despite ongoing peace efforts, Tigray continued to host a significant number of IDPs through 2024. The latest data from IOM indicated that as of May 2024, internal displacement persisted, requiring sustained humanitarian interventions to facilitate safe and voluntary returns.

Humanitarian Conditions of IDPs in Tigray

Shelter and Housing

Displaced individuals faced extreme shelter shortages, often residing in overcrowded collective centers, unfinished buildings, and host communities. Makeshift shelters provided little protection from harsh weather conditions, and privacy concerns, particularly for women and children, were prevalent.

Food Security and Nutrition

The genocidal war severely disrupted food production, leading to acute food insecurity. Blocked supply routes and limited humanitarian aid exacerbated malnutrition, with children under five and pregnant women experiencing life-threatening levels of acute malnutrition.

Healthcare and Disease Outbreaks

Many health facilities in Tigray were destroyed or rendered non-functional, leaving IDPs with minimal access to medical care. Disease outbreaks, including cholera and measles, spread due to overcrowding and poor sanitation, further worsening public health conditions.

Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH)

WASH conditions remained dire, with many IDPs relying on contaminated water sources. Inadequate sanitation facilities contributed to disease outbreaks, and limited access to hygiene products affected women and girls disproportionately.

Education and Child Welfare

Schools were repurposed as shelters, disrupting education for thousands of children. Even in functioning schools, overcrowding, a lack of materials, and psychological trauma hindered effective learning.

Protection and Security Risks

Reports of gender-based violence (GBV), including sexual violence, were widespread. The lack of law enforcement in displacement sites exacerbated protection concerns, making women, children, and the elderly particularly vulnerable.

Challenges to Humanitarian Response
Access Constraints

Humanitarian access remained a critical challenge due to ongoing hostilities, bureaucratic restrictions, and security concerns. Aid organizations often struggled to reach the most vulnerable populations.

Funding Shortages

Humanitarian operations in Tigray were chronically underfunded. The United Nations and humanitarian agencies repeatedly called for increased funding, but responses were inadequate compared to the scale of need.

Coordination Challenges

Effective humanitarian response required collaboration between international organizations, local agencies, and government entities. However, political sensitivities and operational complexities often led to delays and inefficiencies in aid delivery.

Return and Reintegration Efforts
Challenges to Return

Despite efforts to facilitate returns, several obstacles hindered large-scale movements:

• Destroyed Homes and Infrastructure: Many areas remained uninhabitable due to war damage.

• Ongoing Security Concerns: Sporadic violence and unexploded ordnance posed risks, in addition to occupation by Amhara and Eritrea forces.

• Lack of Livelihoods: The collapse of agriculture and local markets limited economic opportunities.

Progress Towards Reintegration

Despite these challenges, some progress was made, according to IOM:

• Ceasefire Agreements: These created opportunities for safe returns in relatively stable areas.

• Infrastructure Rehabilitation: Efforts to restore schools, health facilities, and water systems supported returnees.

• Livelihood Support: Programs focusing on agriculture and vocational training helped stabilize communities.

Migration Patterns and Conflict Drivers (2021-2024)

Conflict-Induced Migration

According to IOM data, migration patterns in Tigray changed drastically due to the war. Displacement was cyclical, with people fleeing violence and returning when temporary stability allowed.

Pre- and Post-War Migration Trends

Before the war, migration was largely driven by economic opportunities. Post-war, forced displacements surged, peaking in 2021. Temporary declines in 2022 were linked to ceasefires, but migration continued in response to new security threats.

Impact on Host Communities

Displacement placed enormous pressure on host communities, straining resources and public services. However, remittances from the Tigrayan diaspora played a crucial role in sustaining many displaced families.

Policy Implications and International Response
Short-Term Humanitarian Needs

• Unrestricted Humanitarian Access: Advocacy is needed to ensure aid organizations can reach all affected populations.

• Increased Funding: Greater financial commitments are required to address urgent needs, including food, healthcare, and shelter. This should be funnelled through local CSOs.

Long-Term Recovery Strategies

• Territorial integrity of Tigray and safe, dignified return of the displaced is critical.

• Economic Rehabilitation: Investing in job creation, agriculture, and small businesses can stabilize returning populations.

• Infrastructure Development: Restoring essential services, such as schools and healthcare facilities, will support sustainable reintegration.

Conclusion

From 2020 to 2024, the genocidal war in Tigray resulted in one of Africa’s most severe displacement crises. While humanitarian efforts provided critical relief, significant challenges remained in ensuring safe and sustainable returns. Moving forward, a coordinated approach combining humanitarian aid, territorial integrity, and economic recovery is essential to help Tigray rebuild and prevent future displacement crises.

 

Bibliography

International Organization for Migration (IOM). "Ethiopia National Displacement Reports (7–19)," 2020–2024. IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix.

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). "Ethiopia - Tigray Region Humanitarian Update," 2020–2024. OCHA Ethiopia.

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). "Ethiopia Emergency Situation Reports," 2020–2024. UNHCR Ethiopia.

World Food Programme (WFP). "Food Security and Nutrition Assessments in Tigray," 2020–2024. WFP Ethiopia.

Human Rights Watch (HRW). "Ethiopia: Crisis in Tigray," 2020–2024. HRW Reports.

ReliefWeb. "Ethiopia: Tigray Region Humanitarian Reports," 2020–2024. ReliefWeb Ethiopia.

International Organization for Migration (IOM). (2021). East and Horn of Africa - A Region on the Move: Mid-year Mobility Overview January to June 2021. Available at: https://dtm.iom.int/reports/east-and-horn-africa-region-move-mid-year-mobility-overview-january-june-2021

 International Organization for Migration (IOM). (2022). East and Horn of Africa - A Region on the Move 2022. Available at: https://dtm.iom.int/reports/east-and-horn-africa-region-move-2022

International Organization for Migration (IOM) & Georgetown University ISIM. (2024). PROGRESS 2024. Available at: https://dtm.iom.int/products/progress-2024