Tigray’s Struggle for Peace: Reflections on the AU-Led Process

 The African Union (AU) led peace talks between the Federal Government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) culminated in the Pretoria Agreement. While the AU presents its role as a remarkable success in conflict mediation in a report, the neutrality of the mediators and the agreement's implementation are of concern.

A Process Marked by  Power Imbalance

 

 The report acknowledges that the TPLF expressed concerns about the AU’s neutrality, fearing bias toward Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. These fears were not unfounded. The AU had, throughout the genocidal war, remained hesitant to condemn atrocities committed against the people of Tigray. The organization’s failure to push for independent investigations into human rights abuses in Tigray cast a long shadow over its role as a mediator.

 

During the height of the genocidal war, the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa remained silent as communication blackouts, starvation, and airstrikes devastated the region. It was only after international pressure and mounting humanitarian concerns that the AU took steps toward mediation, appointing Olusegun Obasanjo as the High Representative for the Horn of Africa. Obasanjo’s prior involvement in endorsing Ethiopia’s 2020 elections makes him too close to Abiy’s administration.

 

The Pretoria Agreement

 

The AU’s report praises the Pretoria Agreement as a landmark achievement, highlighting its role in securing an immediate cessation of hostilities, the return of federal authority, and disarmament. Yet, the agreement came at a significant cost.

 

For one, while the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) remain intact, Tigray was forced to lay down its weapons without clear guarantees of security. The agreement failed to provide immediate protection for Tigrayans against Eritrean and Amhara forces, which have continued to forcefully and illegally occupy half of Tigray. Why didn't the AU ensure Eritrean and Amhara forces' withdrawal before disarmament?

 

Furthermore, the absence of international guarantors in the agreement leaves Tigray vulnerable. While the AU claims that its monitoring mechanism suffices,  given the AU’s track record of deferring to Ethiopia’s federal government, it indeed is insufficient. Further, the AU-led efforts have done little to prevent ongoing rights abuses in forcefully and illegal occupied areas as well as other parts of Ethiopia.

 

Humanitarian Promises Yet to Be Fulfilled

 

One of the key selling points of the peace process was the promise of unrestricted humanitarian aid. While some aid has resumed, the reality on the ground tells a different story. The blockade that strangled Tigray for over two years has left lasting devastation, with hunger and lack of medical supplies still widespread. Reports of bureaucratic delays and continued restrictions by Ethiopian authorities, even denying that there is famine, show that the federal government is using aid as a political tool to exert control over Tigray.

 

The AU report highlights its role in facilitating aid, but for the people of Tigray, the suffering continues. The international community’s failure to hold the Ethiopian government accountable for the deliberate humanitarian crisis remains a bitter point of contention.

 

A Future in Question

 

As the AU celebrates its lessons learned, Tigray remains in limbo. The lack of guarantees for justice, accountability, and self-determination raises fears that the peace deal was merely a diplomatic exercise, rather than a true commitment to a just resolution.

 

For many, the AU’s mediation was less about addressing the root causes of the genocidal war and more about preserving Ethiopia’s territorial unity at the expense of Tigray. The TPLF’s forced negotiations under military pressure, the sidelining of key Tigrayan voices, and the lack of international oversight leave deep wounds in the collective Tigrayan memory.

 

While the guns may have fallen silent, the struggle for dignity, justice, and genuine peace in Tigray is far from over. The AU may have closed its mediation chapter, but for the people of Tigray, the story is still being written.