Ethiopia's Obstruction of the Pretoria Peace Agreement

 

The Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement was signed on November 2, 2022, with a promise that Ethiopia’s devastating genocidal war on Tigray would finally give way to peace. The agreement was intended to end military hostilities, restore constitutional order, facilitate the withdrawal of foreign and non-federal forces, protect civilians, restore humanitarian access and establish a framework for transitional justice, among other issues.

But nearly four years later, peace has failed. The central problem in post-Pretoria Tigray is not simply that implementation has been slow. It is that obligations that serve the interests of the Ethiopian federal government have moved forward, while obligations critical to the security, territorial integrity, safe and dignified return of the displaced, political rights and recovery of Tigrayans have failed to be implemented.

Requirements and Failures of the Pretoria Peace Agreement

The Pretoria agreement has been obstructed in many ways.

For one, the Nairobi Agreement which was signed a few weeks later required the withdrawal of non-ENDF and foreign forces prior to the disarmament of Tigrayan forces. Tigrayan disarmament has instead been treated as a central condition for normalization by the international community, while the withdrawal of Eritrean and non-federal forces from forcefully, unconstitutionally occupied Tigrayan territories has not been implemented. The result is a situation where one side is expected to surrender military capacity while the territorial and civilian-security questions remain unsettled. That is not sustainable peace. A peace agreement cannot require one party to fulfill its obligations while leaving the security conditions surrounding that obligation unresolved. It is actually against the agreement.

Second but not distinct to this is the question of Western Tigray. Human Rights Watch documented widespread abuses there, including forced displacement, ethnic cleansing, and  evidence of continuing human rights abuses against Tigrayans after the formal end of the war. The continuing displacement of Tigrayans from Western Tigray is not simply a humanitarian statistic. It is a direct test of whether the peace process has been implemented. Estimates ranging from hundreds of thousands to more than one million displaced Tigrayans remaining unable to return to their homes, with particular concern surrounding Western Tigray. The Federal Government has called for a referendum. But,  referendum is not the answer as there is deliberate demographic engineering due to ongoing ethnic cleansing and forced displacement.

Third, the Pretoria agreement was intended to end military hostilities. Yet, Federal drone strikes has been repetitive particularly in August targeting civilians. The people of Tigray experienced years of aerial bombardment during the genocidal war. Civilian markets, schools, health facilities, farms and other infrastructure were repeatedly attacked. The reappearance of federal aerial operations after Pretoria raises a fundamental question: What exactly did the cessation of hostilities mean?

Fourth, the failure of Pretoria Agreement is not confined to territory and security. Federal blockades, including on regional budget transfers and on fuel have continued. As a result, hospitals and schools cannot operate. There have been calls by Tigray regional health and education bureaus regarding the debilitating effect of this blockade.

Perhaps the most consequential failure of the post-Pretoria process concerns accountability. Transitional justice was an essential component of sustainable peace. Ethiopia subsequently developed a national transitional justice framework. But serious questions remain regarding its independence, inclusiveness and credibility. It is placed within existing federal institutions.

 Transitional justice also began with the assumption that the state is entitled to investigate itself without meaningful external scrutiny. The ending of international accountability mechanisms after Pretoria created a dangerous gap. ICHREE was established specifically to investigate violations and abuses of international human rights and humanitarian laws committed during the genocidal war in Tigray. ICHREE's September 2023 reporting called for continued investigation and highlighted the failure of Ethiopia to credibly investigate violations. Yet its mandate was not renewed.

The African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights also terminated its country-specific investigation into the genocidal war in Tigray without producing a report. The message this sends is troubling. International mechanisms should not disappear simply because a peace agreement has been signed. The victims of the Tigray war deserve truth, accountability and reparations—not a process designed primarily to close international accountability.

The International Community Must Stop Treating Pretoria as Finished Business.

The Pretoria Peace Agreement must answer the following questions: Can displaced Tigrayans return safely? Are occupied territories being resolved through lawful and peaceful processes? Are foreign and non-federal forces withdrawn? Are civilians protected? Are hospitals and schools functioning? Can Tigray rebuild economically? Can victims obtain justice? Can political disagreements be resolved without coercion? Can the people of Tigray trust that another war will not descend upon them? As shown throughout this article, the Ethiopian government has utterly failed in ensuring this.

The international community should therefore move away from celebrating Pretoria as a completed peace process and toward demanding its full implementation.

First, the protection of civilians must be non-negotiable. Drone attacks and other violations against civilians must immediately cease.

Second, foreign and non-federal forces must leave Tigrayan territory in accordance with the agreement, while territorial integrity of Tigray must be ensured.

Third, the right of displaced Tigrayans to voluntary, safe and dignified return must be respected. Demographic change created through forced displacement and ethnic cleansing must never become the basis for political legitimacy.

Fourth, economic and humanitarian restrictions must end. Tigray needs functioning banking, fuel supplies, public financing, health services and education to survive just as any other region.

Fifth, transitional justice must include an international component to be independent, victim-centered and credible. Domestic mechanisms should not be used as a substitute for international scrutiny.

And finally, international partners must actively monitor compliance rather than assuming that the signing of an agreement guarantees its implementation on Ethiopia's side.

The people of Tigray have already went through immense devastation. The genocidal war devastated communities, displaced millions, destroyed infrastructure and left deep wounds that cannot be healed simply because an agreement was signed in Pretoria.

Yes, Pretoria created an opportunity. But an opportunity is not a solution. The danger today is that the international community will continue to refer to Pretoria while ignoring the conditions that make a durable peace impossible.

The people of Tigray do not need the world to declare that war must not restart. We need the world to ensure that the conditions that produced the war are not allowed to survive under the banner of peace.