Federal Violations in Post-Pretoria Tigray

The signing of the Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA)—commonly referred to as the Pretoria Agreement—on November 2, 2022, between the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was heralded as a relief. Mediated by the African Union (AU) and supported by international observers, the accord outlined a framework to cease military operations, restore constitutional order, guarantee unhindered humanitarian access, facilitate the withdrawal of non-federal and foreign forces, and establish a national framework for transitional justice.    

However, the post-Pretoria landscape has been characterized by selective compliance, structural non-implementation, and persistent human rights violations by the Federal Government. Rather than operating as a foundation for sustainable peace, the agreement has transitioned into a political instrument of consolidation, wherein federal authorities leverage administrative, economic, and security mechanisms—including targeted aerial operations—to isolate and subjugate the Tigray region.

The continued presence of non-federal forces, persistent ethnic cleansing, state-managed transitional justice mechanisms, federal drone strikes, and deliberate economic starvation represent serious violations of international legal standards and the core provisions of the accord.   

The Mandates of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement

The Pretoria Agreement was built upon three essential imperatives: the total cessation of military hostilities, the restoration of federal authority alongside the re-establishment of constitutional boundaries, and the protection of civilian populations from human rights abuses. 

Article 3 mandates the protection of civilians and explicitly forbids assaults on non-combatants, the use of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV), airstrikes, and forced displacement.

Furthermore, Articles 8 and 10 stipulate that the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) must safeguard the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the nation, requiring the complete withdrawal of all foreign troops—specifically the Eritrean Defence Forces (EDF)—and non-ENDF armed groups, including Amhara regional special forces and Fano militias, and Eritrean Forces,  from the constitutional boundaries of the Tigray region.

Complementing these security provisions, the federal government pledged to unfreeze regional budgetary allocations, restore basic public infrastructure—including banking, telecommunications, and electricity—and provide unhindered humanitarian relief. 

The Mechanics of Security Sequencing Disputes

A primary structural flaw undermining the post-agreement order is the federal government's manipulation of security sequencing. The agreement intended for TDF disarmament to occur concurrently with the complete withdrawal of external and non-federal forces. In practice, federal authorities have treated TDF disarmament as an absolute prerequisite for political normalization, while simultaneously permitting Amhara regional forces and Eritrean troops to retain control over occupied Tigrayan territories.   

This dynamic creates a circular implementation failure. For Tigrayan authorities, complete disarmament in the absence of territorial restoration or security guarantees exposes the civilian population to ongoing abuses by occupying forces. For federal authorities, the delayed completion of DDR provides a convenient pretext to justify continued military occupation, delay the restoration of constitutional administration, and withhold critical federal budget transfers. This sequencing dispute transforms the security provisions of the peace accord into instruments of political leverage, effectively consolidating the conflict rather than resolving it.

Territorial Occupation, Forced Displacement, and Demographic Engineering

The structural collapse of the Pretoria Agreement is most pronounced in Western and Southern Tigray. By failing to enforce the withdrawal of non-ENDF forces upon signing the accord, the federal government violated the Peace Agreement. This failure triggered a cascade of administrative paralysis: occupying forces consolidated security control, blocked the return of displaced communities, and carried out systematic demographic alteration.

Consequently, over 700,000 internally displaced persons remain trapped in humanitarian emergencies, while federal authorities exploit the resulting instability to justify ongoing military presence and restrict regional political autonomy.   

Sustained Ethnic Cleansing in Western Tigray

Western Tigray remains a central focal point of human rights violations. Occupied by Amhara regional forces and allied Fano militias since the early stages of the genocidal war in November 2020, the zone has been subjected to a continuous campaign of demographic engineering aimed at permanently altering its ethnic composition.

   

Independent investigations documented by Human Rights Watch  revealed that despite the formal end of hostilities in late 2022, local authorities and Amhara security forces continued to conduct systematic ethnic cleansing. According to Human Rights Watch, Tigrayans residing in the Western Zone have been subjected to arbitrary arrests, mass internments, physical torture, and forced deportations. Local administrators have prohibited the use of the Tigrigna language, confiscated agricultural lands, altered official identity documentation, and systematically replaced original inhabitants with Amhara settlers.   

These actions represent direct violations of Article 10(4) of the Pretoria Agreement, which requires the peaceful resolution of contested territories in accordance with the 1995 FDRE Constitution—a provision that dictates the return of illegally annexed lands to their pre-war regional administration. By actively supporting the Amhara regional administration’s control over Western Tigray, the federal government has effectively endorsed unlawful territorial conquest and forced displacement.   

The Impasse of Internally Displaced Persons

The refusal of state and non-state actors to vacate occupied zones and the continued ethnic cleansing has produced a massive, unaddressed internally displaced person (IDP) crisis. Between 600,000 and over one million displaced Tigrayans remain trapped in overcrowded IDP camps across Mekelle, Shire, and Central Tigray, unable to return to their homes in Western and Southern Tigray.   

In Southern Tigray, specifically within Raya-Azebo and Alamata, attempts to facilitate the return of IDPs have been met with violent resistance by local militia. Sporadic military clashes in early 2024 between local Tigrayan self-defense groups and Amhara armed units highlighted the complete breakdown of federal security guarantees.

Instead of deploying the ENDF to disarm unauthorized regional forces and secure civilian passage as stipulated in the agreement, federal authorities have advocated for political referendums in occupied zones under conditions where the original population has been forcibly removed and where there is ongoing ethnic cleansing. This policy approach incentivizes demographic engineering by rewarding political actors who successfully displace indigenous populations prior to territorial votes.      

Federal Aerial Operations and the Deployment of Drone Strikes

While large-scale ground warfare between the ENDF and TDF ceased following the Pretoria Agreement, federal security forces have repeatedly engaged in aerial military operations that directly breach the cessation of hostilities terms. 

Article 2 of the Pretoria Agreement explicitly prohibits airstrikes, landmine usage, or any offensive military actions targeting civilian infrastructure or combatants. Aerial bombings violate fundamental principles of distinction and proportionality under international humanitarian law.  

Despite these strict prohibitions, federal armed forces continued to conduct drone strikes targeting civilians in Tigray years after the agreement was signed. These aerial attacks caused direct civilian fatalities, severe physical injuries, and extensive damage to local commercial infrastructure.   

The continuation of federal drone strikes has created widespread fear among local populations regarding a complete resumption of armed conflict. These targeted aerial attacks also form part of a broader strategy of low-intensity state violence designed to exert coercive security leverage, attack civilian communities, and constrain the operational authority of Tigray.   

Federal Budgetary Starvation and Financial Freeze

Beyond direct military violence and aerial strikes, the federal government has employed administrative and economic pressure to weaken Tigray’s post-war recovery. Under the terms of the Pretoria Agreement, Addis Ababa was required to restore full regional budgetary transfers, normalize federal administrative funding, and facilitate regional economic rehabilitation.   

Instead, the federal government has withheld  constitutional budget allocations necessary to pay public sector salaries, maintain municipal health services, and repair damaged infrastructure. In late 2024 and 2025, and continuing, federal authorities implemented targeted financial restrictions, freezing bank accounts associated with the Endowment Fund for the Rehabilitation of Tigray (EFFORT)—a commercial entity critical for regional economic reconstruction—and restricting fuel supply lines entering the region. These restrictions have continued. This deliberate economic pressure has undermined the functional capacity of Tigray, worsening public sector collapse and leaving thousands of civil servants without pay for extended periods.  The health and education sectors have literally collapsed due to these restrictions.

The Structural Defects of the April 2024 Transitional Justice Policy

A crucial element of the Pretoria Agreement was the mandate to establish a comprehensive, independent national transitional justice policy designed to ensure accountability, ascertain historical truth, provide reparations to victims, and foster national reconciliation in accordance with African Union standards. On April 17, 2024, the Federal Council of Ministers formally approved the Transitional Justice Policy of Ethiopia (TJPE). 

However, human rights organizations, civil society groups, and legal experts criticized the framework as a state-managed initiative engineered to grant domestic political actors immunity from prosecution.   

The institutional framework established by the TJPE suffers from structural flaws that undermine its legitimacy. 

Rather than establishing an independent hybrid tribunal or internationalized court, the policy creates a specialized bench within existing federal courts. Ethiopian federal courts lack operational independence from the executive branch and the ruling Prosperity Party, rendering them structurally incapable of impartially prosecuting senior government officials or military commanders.

Furthermore, the policy framework explicitly excludes international judges, prosecutors, and independent investigators, isolating domestic proceedings from international oversight.

   

This domestic monopolization of justice enables structural impunity. High-ranking military figures and political officials implicated in grave atrocities remain in senior state leadership positions. For example, military personnel and local officials identified in international human rights reports as suspects in mass atrocities in Western Tigray continue to exercise official administrative and security authority. 

Additionally, the policy sanitizes the historical record by recasting systematic atrocities as minor excesses committed during a legitimate law enforcement operation, ignoring the widespread war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity documented by independent international bodies.   

The Neutralization of International Accountability Mechanisms

Simultaneously, the federal government conducted an aggressive diplomatic campaign to neutralize external accountability mechanisms . Following the signing of the Pretoria Agreement, Addis Ababa lobbied members of the UN Human Rights Council to terminate the mandate of the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE). In late 2023, ICHREE's mandate was allowed to expire without renewal, despite explicit warnings from commissioners that mass atrocities were ongoing.   

Similarly, the African Commission on Human and Peoples' Rights terminated its country-specific commission of inquiry into the Tigray crisis in mid-2023 without publishing a final report. The ACHPR justified ending the investigation by referencing Ethiopia’s adoption of its domestic transitional justice framework—a move that permitted the state to utilize domestic policy drafting as a shield against international legal accountability.

Electoral Disenfranchisement and Institutional Fracturing

The federal government’s post-agreement strategy extended into the political sphere, aiming to neutralize the political standing of the Tigray region. In mid-2025, the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) formally revoked the legal registration of the TPLF, claiming the party had failed to comply with standard legal requirements for national political organizations. The TPLF rejected this decision, correctly noting that Article 10 of the Pretoria Agreement implicitly guaranteed the restoration of its pre-war legal status and political recognition. 

This systemic political exclusion was compounded by federal exploitation of regional political ruptures. A major administrative division emerged between the Tigray Interim Regional Administration led by Getachew Reda and the TPLF party structure led by Debretsion Gebremichael. Federal authorities leveraged budget allocations and official appointments to widen this division, selectively backing specific administrative factions while withholding financial support from the broader civil service. 

This strategy effectively paralyzed regional governance, preventing Tigray from presenting a unified political front to demand federal compliance with the Pretoria Agreement.   

Conclusions

The post-Pretoria period in Tigray demonstrates a profound divergence between formal diplomatic commitments and actual state practice. While the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement brought an end to large-scale, military combat, it failed to establish a durable peace or secure the fundamental rights of the Tigrayan population. The Ethiopian federal government has engaged in systematic non-compliance, employing security sequencing disputes, aerial drone strikes, economic coercion, demographic engineering, and state-managed legal mechanisms to consolidate political control.

   

This pattern of selective compliance creates a self-reinforcing crisis Meanwhile, the neutralization of international investigative bodies like ICHREE and the adoption of a flawed domestic transitional justice policy ensure that state perpetrators operate with absolute impunity.