From Ogaden to Tigray: How Somali Nationalism Reshapes the Horn of Africa - Need for Policy Considerations

 Introduction: 

The desire for a unified Greater Somalia, encompassing Somali-speaking territories in Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, and Somalia, has resulted in significant tension and conflicts between Somalia and its neighboring countries. The Somalia government, aroused by the deal between Somaliland and Ethiopia, where the former granted port access and the latter recognition of Somaliland's sovereignty raised the issue of unified Somalia. This article explores the roots of Somali irredentism, the challenges it poses, and its implications for Tigray.

Somali irredentism refers to the aspirations of Somali nationalists seeking to establish a unified Somali-speaking nation, including regions within Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, and Somalia. This notion of a Greater Somalia has significantly strained diplomatic relations between Somalia and its neighboring countries.

The Underlying Motivation for a Greater Somalia

The driving force behind Somali irredentism lies in the shared ethnic identity, language, and cultural heritage of the Somali people across the Horn of Africa. This sense of unity has fostered the belief that they should have their own sovereign nation that encompasses all Somali-populated areas. 

However, the existing political boundaries of these nations were primarily established by colonial powers and do not correspond with ethnic or linguistic divisions. Consequently, this misalignment has given rise to complex challenges, particularly in Ethiopia, where the Ogaden region hosts a significant Somali population. Somali nationalists argue that the Ogaden should be part of Somalia due to the historical and ethnic ties of its inhabitants. The scramble for Africa in the late 19th century divided Somali territories, placing parts under British, Italian, and French rule. This hindered the formation of a unified Somali state and sowed seeds of discord between colonial powers and ethnicities. Located on the border of Somalia and Ethiopia, the Ogaden is predominantly Somali-inhabited. Tensions have flared around resource control, grazing rights, and the Somali irredentist movement seeking to unite all Somali territories. Ethno-nationalist movements and competition for resources have fueled internal conflicts within both countries, jeopardizing stability and development. The Ogaden region remains a contested area, leading to periodic clashes and hindering cross-border cooperation.

This disagreement has resulted in conflicts between Somalia and Ethiopia, such as the Ogaden War in the late 1970s. Somalia's attempt to annex the Ogaden region was ultimately defeated. Subsequently, various Somali militant groups have continued to advocate for the unification of Somali-populated territories.

The desire for a Greater Somalia, encompassing Somali-speaking territories beyond its current borders, poses a multilayered issue in the Horn of Africa. While driven by the Somali people's shared cultural identity, the complexities arise from colonial demarcations that contradict ethnic distribution. Consequently, ongoing tensions and conflicts persist, affecting neighboring countries and regions such as the Ogaden. Addressing this complex matter requires delicate diplomacy and an understanding of the historical, ethnic, and political factors at play in the region.

Geopolitical and Economic Considerations

There are various manifestations of this rivalry. The contentious border in the Ogaden region has been a flashpoint for conflict. Somalia's claims to the region led to the Ogaden War (1977-1978), a brutal proxy war involving superpowers and immense suffering. Furthermore, both countries face water scarcity and compete for access to resources like the Nile River. This intensifies regional competition and raises concerns about potential future water conflicts. Both countries have also been accused of meddling in each other's internal affairs, supporting proxy groups or factions within the other's territory, further destabilizing the region. Both aim to be regional leaders, vying for economic and political influence within the Horn of Africa. This competition can manifest in diplomatic spats, trade disputes, and competition for international assistance.

Current Complexities:

Current complexities are added to these rivalries. Firstly, both countries face domestic challenges, with Somalia marred by ongoing insurgency and Ethiopia struggling with ethnic tensions and political unrest. These internal struggles complicate their ability to manage the rivalry effectively. Secondly, the semi-autonomous region of Somaliland in northern Somalia adds another layer of complexity. Ethiopia's recent agreement with Somaliland for port access in exchange of recognition of sovereignty further strains relations with the Somali government in Mogadishu. Finally, regional powers like Egypt and Gulf States, and international players like the US and China, have interests in the Horn of Africa. Their involvement can influence the dynamics of the rivalry and potentially exacerbate tensions.

The rivalry between Somalia and Ethiopia is a complex and multi-layered issue with deep historical roots and contemporary relevance. Understanding its intricacies and the various factors at play is crucial for assessing its potential impact on the future of the Horn of Africa and exploring avenues for constructive engagement and regional cooperation.

Discussion of Implications for Tigray: Impact of Somali Irredentism

The consequences of Somali irredentism on the Tigray region in Ethiopia are multifaceted and necessitate careful examination. 

More Autonomy

Somali irredentism possesses the potential to open up existing ethnic rights within Ethiopia. The proposition of a Greater Somalia might open the doors for Tigrayan nationalism as well. At the core, Somali irredentism seeks to unite Somali-inhabited territories across borders into a "Greater Somalia." This includes areas within Ethiopia, Kenya, and Djibouti. If successful, this could redraw regional boundaries and potentially grant autonomy or even independence to Somali regions within Ethiopia. Ethiopia is a highly diverse country with numerous ethnic groups, including the Tigrayans. Somali irredentism could be a potential catalyst for Tigrayan aspirations for increased autonomy or self-determination, considering historical grievances and distinct cultural identity. If one group (Somalis) achieves success in securing greater rights or autonomy, it could embolden Tigrayans to pursue similar goals. This could potentially lead to wider calls for federalism, devolution of power, or even secessionist movements. It could embolden Tigrayan ethno-nationalist movements, potentially impacting internal dynamics and relations with the central government. 

Economic Benefits

There is also economic potential for Tigray within the context of Somali irredentism after independence. Tigray is landlocked, hindering its access to international trade. Joining forces with Somalia could grant Tigray access to strategic ports in northern Somalia, such as Berbera and Bosaso, facilitating international trade. Somalia possesses potential resources like oil and gas, while Tigray has mineral deposits. Collaboration could allow sharing and exploitation of these resources, benefiting both economies. A unified region might foster free trade agreements and economic cooperation within the Horn of Africa, expanding markets and opportunities for both Tigray and Somalia.

However, there are challenges. First, both Tigray and Somalia face internal political instability, which could hamper economic cooperation and integration. Addressing this instability is crucial for any economic benefits to materialize. Second, lack of adequate infrastructure, including transportation networks and communication systems, would need significant investment to facilitate smooth trade and economic exchange. Third, Somali irredentism raises concerns among neighboring countries, potentially leading to regional instability and hindering international investment and support. In addition, Ethiopian government has historically resisted secessionist movements and territorial claims. How it reacts to potential Tigrayan aspirations influenced by Somali irredentism would be crucial in shaping the outcome. The international community and regional actors like the African Union would also likely play a role in mediating any potential conflicts and support solutions that respect the territorial integrity of all nations involved.

Policy Considerations

Tigray's leaders are therefore urged to thoroughly evaluate these risks and benefits. A constructive and peaceful engagement with Somalia should be pursued while prioritizing the aspirations of the Tigrayan people. One significant concern to consider is the potential for armed conflict. In the event that Somali irredentist groups become more proactive in the Ogaden region as is possible with the recent deal between Somaliland and Ethiopia, clashes with Ethiopian forces might occur. Tigray should not involve in this, as it could exacerbate instability in Tigray. Given Tigray’s prior experiences with hardship and recent conflicts, being involved in a conflict presents an additional challenge that could further destabilize Tigray. Any further involvement in war could worsen the existing humanitarian crisis in Tigray, where access to aid and basic necessities is already limited. Further, conflicts and instability generally hinder economic development. If tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia escalate, regional trade and economic cooperation could suffer, impacting Tigray's already fragile economy.