BRICS and Ethiopia's Leaderships: Response to Comments

Here is one comment: “Let’s see if “Historical basis” can be used to feed the hungry and impoverished. This article is a classic example of what Semhal said was ethno-nationalism on an empty stomach… among the flawed premise is asserting that ETH is isolated when it just recently joined BRICS…”

I will respond to the last comment, which tried to fix a flawed premise. Smh. I will respond to the others in consequent articles. 

In principle, membership of the BRICS bloc should have availed the country more elbowroom toward economic development, greater diplomatic leverage, and strategic positioning outside of the traditional Western alliances. But the leadership in Addis Ababa has been stuck with collapsed state machinery and unable to use that room.

Whereas BRICS does promise a multilateral platform to emerging economies for cooperation, the government of Ethiopia, under the Abiy regime, has been treading a path which increasingly drifts away from such an opportunity. Abiy's administration has taken an orientation toward militaristic ways of governance and genocide; it compromised economic stability and diplomatic credibility that highly weakened the potential of the country as a partner with the BRICS countries. This could have been a sufficient response, but in order to understand the stagnation and indeed isolation of Ethiopia within the BRICS framework, its relations with some members of BRICS needs to be considered along with greater implications arising from such interactions.

Ethiopia-China Relations: From Strategic Partnership to Strained Engagement

China has been the most influential BRICS partner for Ethiopia in areas such as infrastructure and industrial development. The late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi utilized China's BRI for loans and investments in building railways, industrial parks, and power plants during his tenure; projects that had been expected to feed the ambitions of Ethiopia to become the manufacturing hub of Africa. China also invested in the Ethiopian telecommunications, energy, and transport sectors-a country it saw as a vital link in the BRI African corridor. 

Under the leadership of Abiy Ahmed, however, relations between Ethiopia and China went cold. General conflicts and especially the very brutal genocidal war in Tigray have terribly disrupted economic activities and seriously diminished the appeal for Ethiopian destinations for  investment. 

China is more suspicious now about extending further financial support to Ethiopia, concerned with economic return and stability in its partnerships. Amidst an increasing debt burden, coupled with an ever-degenerating security environment, questions rise on whether Addis Ababa would be able or willing to pay its loans, let alone maintaining Chinese-backed infrastructure. Consider the Addis Ababa Light Rail-one of the solutions to the challenges that beset Ethiopia-to my memory, it has stopped working. These aspects could easily see China pivot attention to more stable African partners, with Ethiopia losing its most significant BRICS ally.

Ethiopia-Russia Relations: Military-Centric with Little Economic Value

Unlike the relations between China and Ethiopia, those of Ethiopia and Russia have been informed by military and political considerations rather than economic ones. Russia has managed to keep a foot in the door in Ethiopia through armament deals and military assistance since the Cold War. During the Derg era, Ethiopian dependence on Soviet military assistance was overwhelming; even that legacy continued with Abiy Ahmed's effort to seek Russian arms and supplies during the genocidal war in Tigray.

This military alliance, for its part, is not particularly paying off in terms of economic development and diplomatic prestige. While Russia continues to be a supplier of military hardware, the preoccupation of Ethiopia with military solutions for internal conflicts rather than a focus on development and governance bars deeper economic relations with Russia. 

In addition, given the geopolitical priorities of Russia-the war in Ukraine-and its influence in other regions of Africa, its limited political will naturally impinge upon Ethiopia to extend non-existent and considerable economic or political resources. Technological or financial cooperation, are nil in this bilateral relationship.

Ethiopia-India Relations: An Unstable Fading Economic Partnership 

Traditionally, the relations between Ethiopia and India have been mutual in nature and focused on trade, education, and technological cooperation. Ethiopia being among the largest trading partners in Africa with investments in agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and education. The Indian businesses have played a major role in economic development for Ethiopia through skills development and joint ventures in the manufacturing and industry sectors.

However, under Abiy's rule, things have deteriorated. Political instability-from ethnic conflicts to genocidal war in Tigray-saw Indian businesses scale back their operations. The Government of Ethiopia diverted attention away from sectors like education and healthcare, where India has been a very important partner. Displacement of millions by war disrupted agricultural production, where Indian firms had invested in the past. This has meant a decline in trade and investor confidence.

Their presence in East Africa is, of course, growing in number but cautiously in Ethiopia. The failure of the Ethiopian economy and loss of government control over large parts of the country shifted India's focus to other African countries like Kenya and Tanzania, where it is more stable. Thus, Ethiopia loses out on an important BRICS partner in so far as its technological and economic development is concerned.

Ethiopia - Brazil 

Of all the BRICS, the relationship between Brazil and Ethiopia is almost non-existent. Brazilian foreign policy in Africa has sought out the friendship of the Lusophone countries, and it had very little action in Ethiopia. Trade is small between the two, and Brazil has invested little in Ethiopian development. The internal conflicts within the state of Ethiopia, along with its generally worsening security situation, make it all the more doubtful that Brazil will increase its presence in Ethiopia anytime soon.

Other areas of interest in pursuing regional expansion included agricultural technologies and energy partnerships; however, the unstable government system in place in Ethiopia is unattractive for Brazilian business investment. Besides, economic turmoil in Brazil under successive leaderships has constrained the pursuit of ambitious foreign policy objectives in Africa. These are factors that mean stagnation for the current relationships between Ethiopia and Brazil, with no hope for improvements any time soon under the present leadership.

I already wrote of the new members - Eritrea and Egypt in the previous article - a war in the making. While the relations with key BRICS members-China, India, Russia, Brazil, Egypt, Eritrea-either stagnated or deteriorated, the Ethiopian potential of being a regional power is poor. To that extent, isolation within BRICS may well continue to constitute Ethiopia's position, and nothing is going to change.