Tigray's Path Forward: Mobilizing Impartial Elites, Building Inclusive Governance, and Securing Independence

Tigray has experienced unparalleled suffering due to the brutal genocidal war that began in  2020. It is crucial to rebuild not only the physical infrastructure but also the political and social structures that can ensure the region’s security, survival and development. Tigray needs a new direction—one that incorporates impartial thought leadership, the mobilization of a critical mass, and the establishment of an inclusive, democratic government accountable to the people and one that gets its legitimacy from the people.

The Role of Impartial Elites in Shaping Tigray's Future

In any society, elites—defined as individuals or groups who hold a disproportionately large amount of influence or authority in their respective fields—play a pivotal role in shaping governance, culture, and the economy. These elites are thought leaders, individuals who are able to provide direction, foster critical thinking, and mobilize support around important causes. For Tigray, the need for impartial elites is paramount.

These elites must represent a wide range of professions—lawyers, economists, engineers, educators, healthcare professionals—not just politicians. It is essential that Tigray does not fall into the trap of over-relying on political elites to solve all its problems. Instead, the region needs professionals who can critically assess the situation through the lens of the Tigrayan people, in other words, for the interest of Tigrayans, unburdened by personal or political biases. These elites should be capable of working toward a shared goal: the immediate, medium, and long-term security, survival and development of Tigray.

A truly effective elite class is not simply one that supports an interest but one that participates in discourse—the exchange of ideas to arrive at practical solutions. Although public discourse is a democratic right that everyone can participate in, elites should focus on their professional areas of expertise to elevate discussions and drive solutions. If elites in Tigray come together under a common Tigrayan interest, they can create a critical mass, one that can mobilize the wider population to action. 

The Importance of Creating a Critical Mass

A critical mass is the minimum size or amount of something required to start or maintain a venture. In social movements, it refers to the tipping point at which enough people have adopted a particular cause, ensuring that it grows and sustains momentum. In Tigray, creating a critical mass involves mobilizing enough people around the interests of Tigray to enact real change.

For this to happen, the people of Tigray must feel that they are part of a larger collective effort. The critical mass will need to include the local community as well as Tigrayan members of the diaspora, professionals, students, and intellectuals from all walks of life. This mass must unite under the banner of the region’s survival, driven by a collective interest to protect Tigray’s interests. The elites should take the lead in fostering this unity, creating forums and platforms where diverse Tigrayan voices can come together.

The power of a critical mass is that once it reaches its tipping point, change becomes inevitable. For Tigray, this tipping point may come when enough people are mobilized to demand inclusive governance, equitable development, and the protection of Tigrayan interests, both domestically and internationally.

A Call for Inclusive Governance

For Tigray to move forward, it needs an inclusive government or interim administration that is accountable to the people and gets its legitimacy from the people. Currently, the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) is dominated by members of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which has been a longstanding political force in the region. However, the internal divisions within the TPLF have created administration challenges that hinder the region’s ability to not only recover from the war and rebuild but has also posed security challenges. 

 The Divide Within TPLF Leadership and Its Impact on Tigray’s Administration

The internal discord within the TPLF leadership has fragmented the party, creating fears of instability, inefficiencies and slowing progress within Tigray’s administration. The conflict between factions within the TPLF has weakened the political coherence needed to guide the region through this post-genocidal (genocidal) period. Further, the current makeup of the TIRA, which is predominantly TPLF-affiliated, is too narrow and insular to meet the needs of the broader Tigrayan population. A governance structure that relies heavily on one political party or group risks alienating large sections of the population, creating further division and distrust.

The Need for Inclusivity in TIRA

For Tigray to transition into a peaceful, stable and democratic Tigray, the TIRA must become more inclusive. Reducing the dominance of the TPLF and transitioning to a merit-based system of administration, where technocrats and experts from various fields are selected based on their qualifications and contributions, will ensure that the administration is more representative and able to administer without the interruption of party divides. This approach would mirror political theorist Woodrow Wilson’s idea of separating politics from administration—where governance should be carried out by professionals based on merit, not political affiliations. 

In Tigray, this would mean a government that prioritizes competence over factionalism, ensuring that the most capable individuals are in leadership positions, regardless of their political connections. Such an administration could foster trust among the Tigrayan people.

Abiy Ahmed’s Divide-and-Rule Strategy

The challenges facing Tigray’s governance are compounded by the external pressures from the Ethiopian federal government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Abiy has pursued a divide-and-rule strategy, exploiting the internal divisions within the TPLF to weaken Tigray’s political cohesion. Further, both Debretsion’s and Getachew’s factions keep reverting to the Federal Government to resolve their issues. But, Abiy will never resolve this. Instead, by keeping the TPLF divided, Abiy has effectively limited the region’s ability to consolidate power and protect its interests.

This strategy has been aided by Abiy’s adoption of neoliberal economic policies, which have earned him significant support from the international community. However, this support often overlooks his destabilizing actions domestically and the Horn of Africa more broadly. Abiy’s international backing allows him to continue with policies that undermine peace and stability in the region. It is vital for Tigrayans and the global community to expose these tactics and challenge the uncritical support that Abiy receives from the West and other global powers.

Reimagining the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA)

The TIRA’s current structure needs reformation if it is to genuinely serve the interests of the Tigrayan people and continue administering effectively. Incorporating more technocrats and less from TPLF would allow the administration to become more effective and responsive to the needs of its citizens. Governance should be about more than political maneuvering; it should focus on building institutions, ensuring public services, and creating a future for Tigray free from war.

A reimagined TIRA would be inclusive, drawing on the skills and expertise of a wide range of professionals and not just those with political affiliations. This would not only enhance the effectiveness of the administration but also build public trust. If TIRA is perceived as a meritocratic institution, it will command greater legitimacy and support from the people.

The Role of the International Community and UN Peacekeepers

The international community has played a key role in the CoHA negotiations that led to the Pretoria Agreement and the Nairobi Declaration, which were intended to lay the groundwork for peace in Tigray. However, questions remain as to whether the Ethiopian government, under Abiy Ahmed, will fulfill its obligations under these agreements. One of the most lagging issues is the presence of Amhara and Eritrean  forces in forcefully and illegally occupied areas of Tigray. The federal government seems unwilling to return Tigray to status quo ante as outlined in the Pretoria Agreement and the Nairobi Declaration, as it seeks to maintain a balance of power between the Amhara and Tigrayan regions. This is a hypothesis but a viable one - it might also use Tigray as a negotiation tactic with its dealing with Eritrea. It has, in fact, already mentioned the Algiers Agreement a few months back.

One way to ensure the territorial integrity and in fact the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement and the Nairobi Declaration is through UN Peacekeepers. The role of UN peacekeepers in ensuring the implementation of these agreements is critical. However, the disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) of the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) which might be needed in such deployment, which is also stipulated in the Pretoria agreement and ensuing Declaration, poses a significant challenge. While DDR along with UN Peacekeeping could potentially restore Tigray’s territorial integrity in the short term, it would also mean surrendering Tigray’s strongest means of defence and its leverage in any future geopolitical negotiations particularly considering developments in the HoA. So, the only way Tigray can ensure its territorial integrity is if it has geopolitical leverage and strength thus requiring the global forces to support us. For this, we need strong leadership and viable ideology (that while being liberal does not compromise local interests for the sake of international – a balance is crucial). If Tigray has these elements, we will also be able to leverage Tigray Defence Forces for our geopolitical interests. Further, the Pretoria Agreement and the Nairobi Declaration will be implemented. A further analysis in this is crucial in this regard.

The Case for Tigrayan Independence

The independence of Tigray would allow the region to control its economic resources, develop its own policies, and defend its interests without relying on a central government that has repeatedly failed to protect or benefit the region. Independence would enable Tigray to establish a geopolitical position in the Horn of Africa as a stabilizing force, while also ensuring that its economic policies are tailored to the needs of its people. At the same time, the risk of further genocidal actions by the Ethiopian state if we remain within Tigray will be reduced (learning from history, this has happened repeatedly).

However, independence would need strong leadership, viable ideological direction, and a well-organized defence force capable of protecting Tigray from both internal and external threats.

Tigray stands at a critical crossroads. We have endured unspeakable horrors, but Tigrayans have also demonstrated remarkable resilience. To secure a future, Tigray must focus on building a more inclusive, meritocratic government, mobilizing its critical mass, and defending its autonomy. Impartial elites must step up to guide the region, while the broader Tigrayan community must unify behind a common goal, that of defending Tigrayan interests.